Ukraine's central bank forecasts a 0.4% contraction in 2026

2026 GDP forecast

-0.4 %

The National Bank of Ukraine cut its 2026 forecast from 1.8 per cent growth in its July outlook to a 0.4 per cent contraction.

The bank says Russian attacks were the biggest factor, costing 1.9 percentage points of growth, and the blockade of seaports also hit output. GDP fell 0.5 per cent year over year in the third quarter.

The bank expects growth of 0.4 per cent in 2027 if logistics improve by mid-2027, and 2.2 per cent in 2028 as security risks decline.