IMF raises Africa's growth forecast despite the Iran-war energy shock

Africa's growth forecast for this year

4.5 %

The International Monetary Fund now expects Africa's economy to grow 4.5 per cent this year, slightly above its earlier estimate, and five per cent in 2027.

Risks the IMF names

• Renewed disruption to energy supplies
• A sharp rise in global risk aversion
• A strong El Niño
• Conflict and insecurity

Aid to Africa fell sharply last year and is forecast to drop another 12 per cent this year, leaving little room to absorb another shock, said Zeine Zeidane, head of the IMF's Africa department.

Growth per person remains weak: it would take the region nearly 50 years to double its income, while Southeast Asia did it in 15, Zeidane said.

Some countries gain from surging prices for critical minerals. Guinea and Ghana recently restricted gold exports, and Burkina Faso has opened its first gold refinery.