IMF raises its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa

Growth forecast for 2026

4.5 %

The International Monetary Fund now expects sub-Saharan Africa's economy to grow 4.5 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, raising its 2026 forecast by 0.2 percentage points from April.

The fund credits shifts in global supply, strong export earnings in some countries and earlier reforms, such as currency and fuel-subsidy changes in Ethiopia and Nigeria.

The risk

The war in the Middle East is pushing up fuel, transport and fertilizer costs, and median inflation in the region is projected to rise from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 5 per cent in 2027.

Further drop in bilateral aid in 2026

12 %

Bilateral aid to the region is projected to fall a further 12 per cent in 2026, after dropping by roughly a quarter in 2025.