Brazil's runoff could decide the fate of the Amazon

Drop in global deforestation in 2025

15 %

Global deforestation fell 15 per cent in 2025, the largest drop this decade, according to the Forest Declaration Assessment. Most of it came from Latin America, where forest loss fell 33 per cent, led by stronger enforcement in the Brazilian Amazon.

Brazil, presidential runoff

On Oct 25, Brazilians choose between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro narrowly led the first round with 47 per cent of the vote to Lula's 45.

Lula promises net-zero deforestation by 2030, and Bolsonaro zero illegal deforestation by 2029. Bolsonaro said in August that he did not believe in climate change, and environmental groups fear a return to his father's weaker forest protections.

Fires in Amazonas, first two weeks of October

1,679 fires

Amazonas state recorded 1,679 fires in the first two weeks of October, up 253 per cent from a year earlier, as a strong El Niño delays the rains. Brazil's environment ministry says fires inside protected forest point to deliberate arson.

Why it matters

About 22 per cent of the Brazilian Amazon has already been cleared. Scientists most often cite a tipping point of 20 to 25 per cent, past which parts of the forest could turn into savanna.