US midterms, three days out: Democrats favoured in the House, Senate in play

Forecast odds of a Democratic House

80 %

Forecast models give Democrats an 80 per cent chance of winning the House on Tuesday. They lead the national congressional polling average by 8.2 points, 51.4 per cent to 43.2.

Senate races to watch

• Texas: Talarico (D) vs Paxton (R)
• Maine: Collins (R) vs Jackson (D)
• North Carolina: Cooper (D) vs Whatley (R)
• Alaska: Sullivan (R) vs Peltola (D)
• Michigan: El-Sayed (D) vs Rogers (R)

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate, where Republicans hold 53 of 100. Races in these states are among those that could decide it.

Early votes cast, per AP

43 million early ballots

More than 43 million Americans had voted early five days before Election Day, nearly 10 million more than at the same point in 2022. President Donald Trump will hold rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday.

And us?

Tariffs on Canada are a campaign issue: Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers, who defended the trade war, now calls for ending it. In Maine, the administration twice lifted tariffs on Canadian exports the state depends on.